Britain’s role in the new Cold War | Dominic Lawson

The absorption of Hong Kong marks the opening shots of a cold war in which Britain may play a leading role.

The rhyme of history

If there was ever any hope that the pandemic would have put a pause to the Chinese state’s ambitions, that has been dashed in spectacular fashion by the full absorption of Hong Kong into the jurisdiction of mainland China. 

The newly introduced security bill, which focuses on disrupting succession movements and opposition to Beijing’s CCP, means that Hong Kong will be subjected to the same strict security-intelligence regime as exists on mainland China. 

While the CCP will maintain the pretence of ‘one country, two systems,’ it has been erased to all practical extent. The passing of this bill and the repression meted out to the protestors has acted as a symbolic firing shot to mark the start of a new phase in relations between China and the West. 

In a not-dissimilar way that the crushing of the Hungarian revolt of 1956 represented a new phase of the Soviet-Western confrontation, the absorption of Hong Kong marks the start of a new level of superpower competition.  

The example of Hungary has clear parallels to the action of the Chinese state in Hong Kong. Both are regarded as vital to the projects of their respective regional oppressors. The USSR viewed Hungary as being a key portion of the strategic depth that it needed to counter NATO’s land forces, and we see a similar dynamic at play in Hong Kong. 

China is riven with numerous distinct ethnic identities. And just as the Soviet Union feared that Hungarian freedom would lead to mass revolts from the countries which made up the periphery of their empire, so China fears that Hong Kong will act as the first domino to fall in their vast multi-ethnic patchwork state. It’s no coincidence that one of the elements the new law is focused on repressing is ‘splittism.’ 

From Beijing’s perspective, if Hong Kong were to break free it could act to inspire restive ethnic minorities in some of China’s most important peripheral regions. They fear coherent separatist movements in Outer Mongolia with its plentiful coal and energy resources. And in Tibet, which China relies on for access to it’s rich freshwater stocks. 

This is the key reason for Chinese ruthlessness against Hong Kong (and Taiwan). It is the reason that, unfortunately, the city-state looks destined to lose its independence and identity. 

Escalation

This new cold war has the potential to be just as detrimental to the global order as the previous one. Perhaps we won’t see the permanent threat of nuclear exchange as we did with the first one but modern technology has meant that we are now more vulnerable to cyber attacks on our critical infrastructure, such as the NHS or the Bank Of England. 

The senior Conservative MP, Tom Tugendhat, has reported being targeted by a sophisticated hacking attempt. Tugendhat has been the most vocal figure against Chinese state aggression and the attack came after he questioned China’s official coronavirus death toll. 

With increasing technological capability removing geographic barriers, state cyber attacks against British political leaders could become an ever present reality. 

On a society-wide level, the West is undergoing demographic and political changes which leave it susceptible to outside subversion. We have seen repeated attempts by Moscow to use their arsenal of ‘active measures,’ to ignite cleavages within American and European society. 

‘Active measures’ is a Russian variant of hybrid warfare, by which a range of assets are used with the intention of internally weakening an adversary. 

These methods originated from the 20th century where Moscow reasoned that it did not have a military capable of confronting the United States directly so opted for a campaign of disinformation and black propaganda. One particular faultline that Soviet strategists identified as being ripe for aggravating was the racial cleavages within American society. 

China will likely, and indeed has already begun to, adopt these methods and implement them against the West. In fact, China, Iran and Russia have already pounced on the opportunity to criticise the USA over the current Black Lives Matters protests.

The United Kingdom should prepare to be a target of a steady stream of disinformation aimed at taking advantage of our numerous ethnic and political cleavages. The modern world is uniquely suited to the spreading of disinformation and weaponised paranoia. Trust in our public institutions are at a record low and connective technology allows the spread of (dis)information at a rapid pace. 

This won’t just be aimed at generating anger within our society but also at besmirching our international reputation as well. By the spreading of rumours, the USSR intended to ruin the reputation of the US among African states and create a diplomatic opening for Soviet influence. We may see a similiar dynamic play out as Chinese propaganda efforts seek to enflame latent anti-British and anti-Western feeling within the Middle East and Africa. 

This propaganda effort will likely come in tandem with increased efforts at ‘state capture’ by Beijing’s significant diplomatic and corporate resources. We know that China has designated Africa a key target to exploit its rich natural resources. Will we see the funnelling of money and weaponry in support of proxy forces throughout the continent, aimed at toppling Western-aligned African governments? Most likely. 

Proxy warfare was the distinguishing feature of the previous Cold War and has become a continual presence in the modern Middle East. Thus far, Beijing has opted to remain distant from ongoing regional confrontation but this could change as the American-Chinese rivalry intensifies. We could see Beijing devoting its efforts to destabilising these regions to both distract the United States and undermine European continental security. 

Containment

Just as with the Soviet Union, the West should respond with a collective drive to isolate this rising power. 

Recent news emerging out of Downing Street has given a clear sign that the government recognises this as a priority. The plans stimulate the UK’s desire to unify ten countries to develop alternative means of developing 5G technology. This proposed “D10” - an alliance of ten democratic middle powers and the United States has the potential to act as the first stage of a permanent coalition for this new cold war.

On top of this, the West will find eager allies in countries such as Vietnam and the Republic of China, both of whom have been struggling to resist pressure from Beijing for years and have not received adequate diplomatic support. We could also extend this cordain sanitaire into the economic realm. 

US politicians are currently debating a bill which would potentially deny Chinese companies the right to raise money on American stock exchanges. The bill would mean that Chinese companies will need to be audited under the same conditions as companies from other countries. It means that they would be delisted from US stock exchanges should they refuse or are found wanting. This is an action which the United Kingdom could copy by delisting companies which do not meet rigorous regulatory standards from the FTSE, potentially denying them a lucrative form of funding and forcing the Chinese state and corporate sector to comply with recognised global businesses practices.

Achilles Heel

Despite its outward show of strength, the CCP is not as strong as it appears.

The CCP’s hold on power is dependent upon a Faustian bargain with its citizenry that promises continued economic prosperity and security at the cost of staying out of the political process. This bargain has worked for the preceding decades as China has risen to become the second largest economy but there are clear signs that it is faltering now. 

As growth has slowed, the CCP is increasingly adopting authoritarian measures to prevent it’s populace from dissenting. This is why we have seen the introduction of the world’s most invasive security and intelligence infrastructure, the most obvious example of which is the ‘social credit system.’

This architecture of repression has been developed and tested in peripheral regions, such as Xianjing where an estimated 2 million Uyghur muslims have been imprisoned. The fact that it is now being rolled out into the wider population is a sign of the internal weakness of the regime, not a sign of strength. 

The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, while often seen as a sign of strength, is also an example of the weakness of the regime. One of the primary motivations for it is the impending depletion of China’s critical domestic resources and Beijing’s desire to offset this coming crisis by the importing of resources from Eurasia.

China is currently transitioning to a consumer-based economy. This is partly motivated by a desire to retain the large rate of growth but it is also indicative of the CCP’s desire to wean China off of trade with the United States as a core source of revenue. The trade war started, and is currently halted, but Trump demonstrated how dependent Beijing is on foreign capital. While the Phase 1 deal may have been signed, the possibility that superpower rivalry will lead to another round in the trade war is very likely. 

The Future

Ultimately, this superpower confrontation will prove challenging but it could also act as a historic moment for the United Kingdom to achieve several of its most important societal and foreign policy needs.  

For instance, Johnson has made clear his desire to turn the UK into a technological powerhouse. A military arms race against the East could act as the catalyst for that very objective. Just as the internet, mobile phones and GPS was birthed from Cold War military research, our present need to outcompete Beijing could fuel immense advances in British industry. 

Diplomatically, we have the opportunity to extend and deepen our relations with much of the globe and define a distinct foreign policy at a time when our shift away from the orbit of Europe has left us without a grand strategic vision. 

One thing that is likely is that it will be the defining geopolitical theme for the coming decades.